Good morning, it’s Wednesday, January 1, 2025. Happy new year! In today’s edition, we preview the state policy trends emerging in legislative sessions this year:
Top Stories
2025: The first three months of an odd year is the busiest quarter of a legislative cycle. By the end of January, 44 states will have kicked off their sessions, setting new goals and priorities after an election season that left majorities intact in all but a few states. Here are the big policy trends we expect to emerge in the coming months:
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: If 2024 kicked off the race to regulate AI in blue states, this year will represent the first big red state foray into the fast-emerging space. We’re watching legislation introduced by Texas Rep. Giovanni Capriglione (R), whose bill may become the template other GOP lawmakers build from.
TECHNOLOGY: Legislators are trying to regulate the interaction between social media platforms and minor users, with mixed success. Their next target may be AI companion bots, platforms that allow users to form relationships with artificial personalities, after high-profile cases in Florida and Texas where teens were allegedly urged to harm themselves.
ENERGY: The booming demand for compute power from data centers is the new gold rush, as states throw economic development money at tech firms that are spending billions to boost their AI abilities. All those data centers consume a lot of energy, and states are turning to green energy and nuclear power to meet demand.
ABORTION: Most blue states have done what they can to codify and protect abortion rights. But red states are expanding their fight to restrict abortion access, led by Louisiana, where Gov. Jeff Landry (R) has already signed legislation making access to two common abortion-inducing drugs more difficult. Expect other red states to take their own shots at mifepristone and misoprostol.
HEALTH CARE: As the Trump administration prepares to take office, red states are preparing new applications to include work requirements for Medicaid recipients. South Dakota, Ohio and Montana have already made their plans public, while Florida is delaying an expansion of a children’s health insurance program in hopes the Trump team will side with them in a dispute over missed premiums.
HOUSING: In policy, success often breeds success. The states that passed massive housing reform packages in 2024 — Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado and others — are likely to inspire regulatory reform efforts in other states too. Easing environmental rules is the most likely red state play, while both Democrats and Republicans are likely to review single- and multi-family zoning rules.
GOVERNMENT REFORM: The end of the pandemic-era budget boom and Trump’s focus on his Department of Government Efficiency are likely to spur a new rush to reform state-level agencies as well. Already, red states are kicking off their own DOGE-like programs meant to trim the fat.
In Politics & Business
LEGISLATURES: Only two states — Virginia and New Jersey — hold legislative contests this year, when members of the lower house face re-election. Democrats own a firm grip on the New Jersey Assembly. The biggest battle is for control of the Virginia House of Delegates, where Democrats hold a 51-49 majority.
VIRGINIA: Virginia’s one-term rule means perpetual open seat contests, and this year will likely produce a major showdown between Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D). Either would be the Commonwealth’s first woman governor, and an instant star within their respective parties.
NEW JERSEY: The race to replace retiring Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has attracted nearly a dozen serious candidates already. New Jersey is a blue state, but it has elected Republicans in the past; prior to Murphy’s tenure, Republicans had won four of the six previous gubernatorial contests.
COURTS: There are three certainties in life: Death, taxes, and competitive Wisconsin Supreme Court elections. The battle to replace retiring Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, a member of the narrow liberal majority, will attract tens of millions in spending.
MAYORS: Incumbent mayors in Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Minneapolis, New York City, Pittsburgh, Seattle and St. Louis are running or eligible to run for new terms. Retiring mayors will leave open seats in Detroit, Miami, New Orleans and San Antonio. New York Mayor Eric Adams (D) faces a big group of Democratic rivals; Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey (D) had a difficult first term handling the riots after the murder of George Floyd.
By The Numbers
46,610: The number of people stopped for unlawfully crossing the U.S.-Mexico border in November, the lowest figure in four years. (Los Angeles Times)
$224,000: The annual salary top legislative Democrats will earn in Massachusetts beginning this year, after Gov. Maura Healey (D) ordered an 11% pay raise for lawmakers. Legislators will earn a base salary of $82,044, but leadership positions come with substantial stipends on top of that base. (Boston Globe)
317 lbs.: The amount of illegal drugs seized at Ted Stevens International Airport in Anchorage this year, about a third of which was fentanyl. The haul was about twice the amount of illegal drugs seized there in 2023. (Alaska Beacon)
Off The Wall
Air pollution may be slowing down marathon runners. A new study from researchers at Brown University found increases in air pollution of just one microgram per cubic meter of air could slow the average male runner down by 32 seconds, and the average female runner by 25 seconds. (Boston Globe)
Knoxville police have rounded up a large pig running through the parking lot of a Wendy’s. It’s not clear who owns the pig, but the Baconator jokes write themselves. (UPI)
Quote of the Day
“As you might guess, there’s been lots of case law on this — which means when people sue, there are sometimes disagreeing opinions on things.”
— Dan Tierney, spokesman for Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R), on the varying deadlines DeWine faces to act on substantial pieces of legislation lawmakers approved in the waning days of session. The deadlines depend on when lawmakers formally send DeWine the bills. (Cleveland Plain Dealer)