Early surveys show former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in the race to replace Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), in what is likely to be the marquee gubernatorial matchup of this year’s off-year elections.
A poll conducted for the Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University released Friday shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by a 44% to 34% margin.
A separate survey for the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University, released Jan. 16, shows Spanberger leading by a 44% to 39% margin.
Two other surveys conducted in December and January show Spanberger leading by smaller margins.
Spanberger retired from Congress this year after three terms in Washington to focus on her run for governor. She has pulled in nearly $9.6 million for her campaign so far, ending 2024 with $6.5 million in the bank.
Earle-Sears, elected alongside Youngkin four years ago, launched her campaign for the top job in September. End-of-year campaign finance reports show she is sitting on $2.1 million in campaign cash.
Both are overwhelming favorites to capture their party’s nomination. Other top Republicans, including Attorney General Jason Miyares (R), have deferred to Earle-Sears. U.S. Rep. Bobby Scott (D) is still publicly considering a run for governor, but several top Democrats including former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (D) have opted to run for other offices.
Virginia has had 74 governors since 1776, all of them men. Either Spanberger or Earle-Sears would be the first woman to govern the state.
The Wilder School poll showed nearly 60% of state residents naming the economy and the cost of living as the most important issue facing the commonwealth, well ahead of the 14% who named K-12 education. More than half, 51%, say they approve of Youngkin’s performance as governor.
In a press release, former Gov. Douglas Wilder (D), the Wilder School’s namesake, said Earle-Sears has opportunity to build her support. About a quarter of Republicans did not say they would back the lieutenant governor yet, a sign that she has room to grow once the party coalesces behind her candidacy.
The Wason Center poll showed Youngkin’s approval rating at 53%. That survey showed 61% of state residents backing a constitutional amendment, approved this month by Virginia lawmakers, that would guarantee reproductive rights.