States that voted for President Trump in 2024 are more dependent on foreign trade to bolster their gross domestic products, raising the prospect that the president’s own voters could be hardest hit by the administration’s mounting trade war.
Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce shows both exported goods and imported goods are significantly larger factors in red state GDPs than they are in blue states, according to Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research at the National Association of Realtors.
In states that voted for Trump last year, imported goods accounted for 10.3% of GDP, on average. States that favored former Vice President Kamala Harris rely on imported goods for 8.5% of their GDP.
Eight of the 10 most import-reliant states voted for Trump in 2024, including staunch red states including Kentucky, Tennessee, Indiana, South Carolina and Texas, as well as swing states Michigan and Georgia. Illinois and New Jersey are the blue states most reliant on imported goods.
Trump states relied on exporting goods for an average of 7.25% of annual GDP, according to Evangelou’s calculations. That compares with just 4.8% for states that voted for Harris.
Among states where exports played a larger role in GDP, the difference is even more pronounced: Eight of the 10 most export-reliant states favored Trump in 2024, including all of the top five — Louisiana, Texas, Kentucky, Indiana and South Carolina.
The tentpoles of local economies drive a state’s reliance on imported or exported goods. Louisiana, which depends on exports for 26.5% of its GDP, exports massive amounts of oil, gas, petroleum and coal products to other nations; its top trading partners are China and Mexico.
Kentucky, the most import-reliant state, gets 32.3% of its GDP from those goods — but not because of its long history as a bastion for coal production. Instead, in recent years, the state has become a hub for pharmaceutical products, its largest import, as well as motor vehicle parts and aerospace products.
States like Michigan and Indiana, both heavily import-reliant, highlight the role the automotive industry plays in regional trade. Auto plants in both states import parts made in Canada and Mexico to build their vehicles.
Texas credits exports for 16.8% of its GDP, primarily in the oil and gas sector but also thanks to its growing role in the technology industry. Texas exports more than $30 billion a year each to Mexico, Canada and the Netherlands.
States that rely most on international trade are more likely to experience the impacts of global deals, Evangelou wrote.
“A surge in global demand supports their growth, while disruptions, such as factory shutdowns overseas or sudden tariffs, can present challenges as well,” Evangelou wrote in an analysis.
The degree to which states depend on trade as a share of their GDP cascades into each state’s job market. Evangelou said states that are heavily trade-dependent can see bigger spikes in job growth — and bigger declines when times get tough. But states that are less trade-dependent experience more stable job growth over time.
Since the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994, high trade-reliant states saw average job growth of 32%, while low trade-reliant states experienced job growth of 39%. Some of the lowest-trade states like Nevada, Utah and Arizona saw job totals double over that time.