Voters in a deep red slice of Pennsylvania Dutch Country delivered a surprising upset on Tuesday, choosing East Petersburg Mayor James Malone (D) in a special election for an open state Senate seat.
Malone’s district, outside of Lancaster and southeast of Harrisburg, is solidly Republican territory. President Trump carried the district by a 15-point margin. Malone’s predecessor, Sen. Ryan Aument (R), didn’t face a Democrat the last time he was on the ballot, in 2022. Four years earlier, Aument beat a Democratic challenger by a 2 to 1 margin.
But in a low-turnout special election, Malone, running against the Republican majority in the state Senate and Republican control of Washington, carried 50% of the vote, outlasting County Commissioner Josh Parsons (R) by 482 votes.
“A lot of people from around the state and country said this district wasn’t competitive, and they’d never elect someone from the other party, but I think that underestimates Lancaster,” Malone said in a statement claiming victory. “We are watching our values be denigrated in Washington as our leaders in Harrisburg watch silently. I talked to this district, and I listened, and we agreed it’s time to act.”
Malone is the second Democrat to score an upset victory in a special election this year. His win follows Iowa Sen. Mike Zimmer (D), who captured a rural district along the Mississippi River in January just months after Trump won it by 21 points.
Neither result will make a material difference in the day-to-day operations of legislatures in either state: Republicans hold a huge majority in the Iowa Senate, and a narrower but solid majority in the Pennsylvania Senate.
But the results should set alarm bells ringing.
Special elections are oddities in American politics. Held at irregular times, they are decided by just a fraction of the voters who show up in a regular general election contest. Because the electorate looks so different from usual, strange results can emerge.
But those special elections can also be harbingers of troubling times ahead for an incumbent party. They offer a snapshot of the voters who are most motivated to cast a ballot, a hint of the direction in which the political winds are blowing — especially when they take place in areas historically controlled by one party.
Six months before the 1994 elections, in which Republicans captured control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years, voters in Oklahoma and Kentucky cast their votes in special elections. Though they are deep red states now, both were ancestrally Democratic — until Reps. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) and Ron Lewis (R-Ky.) won. Neither seat has elected a Democrat in the 30 years since.
Six months before the 2008 elections, in which Barack Obama led a Democratic sweep of Washington, voters in Republican-heavy Louisiana and Mississippi went to the polls. There, surprise victories by Reps. Don Cazayoux (D-La.) and Travis Childers (D-Miss.) presaged the blue wave ahead.
And in 2018, Pennsylvania voters elected Conor Lamb (D) to replace Rep. Tim Murphy (R), in a special election that hinted at the anti-Trump backlash ahead.
Democrats cited Malone’s win as a sign of trouble for Trump and his party, and an indicator of favorable winds ahead.
“It’s only March, and Democrats have defied the odds again with another upset victory in Republican territory,” said Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. “Democrats are on a roll in state legislative races in 2025, from flipping red seats to defending one-seat majorities, which should put Republicans on edge.”
Republicans aren’t sweating yet. They rely on a truism in politics, that special elections are special, and that larger forces will be at play when voters head to the polls in the 2026 midterm elections.
“Democrats know their failed policy agenda is toxic and their only chance to boost enthusiasm with their voters is to throw everything they can at minor, low-information special elections that don’t reflect the realities they will face in the midterms,” said Mason Di Palma, communications director at the Republican State Leadership Committee.
If a month is a lifetime in politics, the 18 months before the midterm elections will be an eternity — especially with the break-neck pace of news the Trump administration is setting. And other elections, from an open congressional seat in Florida to a Wisconsin Supreme Court race next week and the battle for governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, will offer important hints at the electorate’s mood in the near future.
But amid Democratic depression about the presidential contest last year, and the party’s low standing in voters’ eyes, Malone and Zimmer represent a silver lining around a dark cloud. Electoral history may be repeating itself once again, special election or not.