Politics isn’t always about having all the power — sometimes it’s ensuring the other side doesn’t either.
In November’s state legislative elections, Democrats have set their sights on winning a few seats across the three states that would deny Republicans veto-proof majorities capable of hobbling the states’ Democratic governors.
In North Carolina, Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers by a single seat. In Kansas, Democrats need to win two seats in the House and three in the Senate. In Wisconsin, Democrats want to block Republicans from gaining the single Assembly seat that would give the party the ability to override Gov. Tony Evers (D).
“A supermajority can neuter the power of an opposite-party governor,” said Steven Rogers, associate professor of political science at Saint Louis University. “If Democrats can make enough gains in the legislature, the governor’s veto will again be a check on the legislature.”
Democrats are focused on flipping both chambers in Arizona and New Hampshire; winning total power in split Pennsylvania; and defending Michigan and Minnesota majorities they won in 2022. But they also see plenty of upside in delivering a blow to GOP-dominated legislatures where Democratic governors’ veto power has been hamstrung.
Republicans have veto-proof majorities in both chambers in 20 states, and Democratic have them in nine, according to Multistate. Vermont is the only state with a Democratic supermajority in both chambers and a Republican governor.
What counts as a supermajority varies by state. Thirty-six states, including Kansas and Wisconsin, require a two-thirds vote in both chambers to override a governor’s veto. Seven states, including North Carolina, require a three-fifths vote; and six others set the threshold at a simple majority. Alaska requires a two-thirds vote from its combined legislative chambers.
North Carolina
North Carolina Republicans gained a supermajority in April 2023 when Rep. Tricia Cotham switched from Democrat to Republican. It was the third time in 25 years that a party switcher “has either caused the majority to switch or given a party supermajority status,” said Jason Windett, who teaches political science at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte.
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) had all 19 of his vetoes overturned last year. Republicans could top that figure this year, according to Windett.
The legislature recently overturned a veto Cooper issued in July of a bill that reformed building codes in the state. The bill also axed a rule mandating that all new homes be equipped with electric-vehicle charging capability.
Democrats want to end the GOP’s supermajority to help empower gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein (D), who has held strong leads in recent polls.
“The big thing for us right now is getting out of the superminority so that we can protect the governor’s veto,” said North Carolina Rep. Pricey Harrison (D).
Harrison pointed to climate policy as an area that could suffer without a Democratic governor’s veto power. The legislature enacted a law in 2021 that established a carbon-free energy goal of 100% from 2005 levels by 2050, and 70% by 2030. Duke Energy, a lobbying force in the state, is trying to push the 70% deadline to 2035.
“That is a long-term goal that’s in place now,” Harrison said. “Having a governor that continues to support it and champion it will keep it on course.”
New district lines drawn in 2023 that favor Republicans have made it more difficult for Democrats, but the party is banking on an enthusiasm boost from Vice President Kamala Harris.
“You’re going to see Democratic coattails if Harris wins, and that might help break the supermajority,” Windett said. “It’s going to take increased voter turnout — really, really high levels of voter turnout in North Carolina — because those lines are drawn so well. Now, if it looks like Trump wins the state … and turnout is depleted amongst Democratic voters, then the supermajority could be held.”
Kansas
Nathaniel Birkhead, a political science professor at Kansas State, said Democrats have “decent” odds to win the requisite House seats and break Kansas Republicans’ supermajority.
He pointed to Democrats coming close in 2022, and said the path is the GOP-held House districts that Gov. Laura Kelly (D) carried that year.
“Laura Kelly won in several House districts that were also won by Republican state legislature candidates, ” Birkhead added. “Democrats have candidates in all but one of those.”
Birkhead also said that, unlike North Carolina or Wisconsin, there is no competitive race at the top of the ticket.
“Kansas is a safe Republican seat from a presidential perspective,” Birkhead said. “So I think that what that’s going to do is actually draw attention, to the extent that is possible, on good, old-fashioned canvassing and door knocking that helps kind of get out the vote on these less notable electoral races.”
Kelly has seen at least six of her vetoes overturned on a host of issues, including transgender care, abortion and taxes. Zack Pistora, a lobbyist for the Kansas chapter of the Sierra Club, said overcoming the GOP supermajority would help defend against more extreme policies on climate as well on a raft of other issues.
“There is an advantage to having a more politically balanced state government,” Pistora said.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin Republicans have a supermajority in the Senate and are one seat away from a two-thirds threshold in the Assembly. New electoral maps won’t make clinching a supermajority any easier.
The district lines proposed by Gov. Tony Evers (D) and approved by the Republican-led legislature give Democrats a better chance of making gains, especially in the Assembly. Nearly two-thirds of the Assembly’s seats are open because of retirements spurred in part by redistricting.
“It’s been too partisan for too long,” Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein (D) told the Associated Press. “I know I’m sick of it and the people of Wisconsin are, too.”
The GOP first won control of the legislature in 2011. The new electoral maps have given Wisconsin Democrats hope beyond blocking an Assembly supermajority.
“I absolutely believe that we can win a small majority,” Evers, who has grappled with the GOP-controlled Legislature for six years, told Wisconsin Watch in August.