The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is alerting party donors that they must begin preparing for the decennial redistricting process set to begin in earnest at the end of the decade, warning that failure to do so could lead to a decade out of power in Washington.
In a memo sent to donors Wednesday, DLCC President Heather Williams said the party’s past efforts to win control of legislatures that will draw more than 300 congressional districts had fallen short.
“To have a shot at winning and maintaining a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives going forward, Democrats must reassess our failed federal-first strategy and get serous about winning state legislatures ahead of redistricting — not just in the final months of 2030, but starting now,” Williams wrote.
The memo was first reported by Politico.
Williams pointed to the 2010 elections, a Republican wave that swept the GOP to power in Congress.
Along with those victories, Republicans picked up 20 state legislative chambers, including in Wisconsin, New York, North Carolina and Alabama — all states where the subsequent redistricting process gave Republicans an advantage.
The Republican State Leadership Committee, the DLCC’s GOP counterpart, spent more than $30 million on what they called their REDMAP strategy to win legislatures. The fallout from those victories still shapes American politics today: Republicans control 57 state legislative chambers across the nation, compared with only 39 in Democratic hands.
Today, Democrats maintain control in only one state — New York — where they lost a majority in 2010.
The redistricting process, once relegated to a frenzied fight after the decennial Census, is now a yearly battlefield. Texas Republicans are meeting for special session this week as they plot to redraw congressional district lines in hopes of shoring up the GOP’s narrow majority in Washington. Lawmakers in Ohio must redraw their map lines ahead of next year’s midterms, a process controlled entirely by Republicans.
Litigation over existing map lines is underway in Louisiana and Alabama; the Florida Supreme Court last week rejected a Democratic challenge to a map signed into law by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).
Democrats in California, New Jersey and New York have all made noises about redrawing their own maps, though the process is more difficult because of independent commissions in those states.
“We’re in a period right now where both parties are looking for every seat they can get because the majority is so tight,” said Adam Kincaid, who heads the National Republican Redistricting Trust, a group solely dedicated to the GOP’s remapping effort. “The majority may still be within five to 10 seats next time. So it’s high stakes.”
Pointing to Texas, Williams said the decennial redistricting fight had already begun.
“We know that midterms have generally been more favorable for Democrats — and that’s before we consider the early indicators in our current political environment,” Williams wrote. “We must seize on this current environment to build our foundations in the states ahead of redistricting in order to navigate the unpredictability of cycles in 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030.”
The redistricting process varies widely by state. Twenty-six states, which collectively send 240 members to the House of Representatives, vest total authority in redistricting matters with the state legislature. Three states use commissions headed by politicians; eight more use commissions run by members of the public.
Three states have backup commissions in case legislatures cannot agree on lines, and four states use advisory commissions. Six additional states have only one at-large member of Congress.