Major changes are coming to Washington. In the states? Not so much.
There was remarkably little movement in state legislative races in the 2024 elections, despite President-elect Trump winning 312 electoral votes and flipping six swing states.
While control of a few state chambers remains outstanding, the National Conference of State Legislatures projected Republicans would gain only around 50 seats, and that the GOP would control as many chambers as the party did prior to the election, 57.
It’s a remarkably small amount of change in state legislative seats compared with historical numbers. The average shift in seats in general elections from 2000-2022 was 195, including 708 in the 2010 midterm elections, according to the NCSL.
“Partisan control of states seems to have entered a static era, with only minor shifts in the past few election cycles,” NCSL CEO Tim Storey said in the organization’s post-election analysis. “Generally, Republicans had a decent night in the states last Tuesday, but it could have been far worse for Democrats. In the end, the landscape is not very different than before Nov. 5.”
Chambers where control is still unknown as of Tuesday morning included the Arizona House and the New Hampshire House, both of which Republicans controlled heading into the election. If current results hold, the GOP would maintain control of both.
Republicans flipped control of the Michigan House. The Democrat-controlled Minnesota House appears headed for a tie. Maine’s House is so closely divided that it will likely be led by a coalition. And both Alaska chambers will be led by bipartisan coalitions next year.
Republican-led legislatures in red states got redder. But Democrats broke the supermajority in North Carolina while also winning the state’s top three executive offices. Democrats also narrowly held on to the Pennsylvania House, keeping that legislature divided.
There were no changes in governor’s races, after Republicans held on to the most vulnerable seat on the 11-state map, in New Hampshire.
The next races to watch are a year from now in Virginia and New Jersey, two states where Vice President Kamala Harris won only 52% of the vote. Both states will elect new governors in 2025; New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) both face term limits.