LOUISVILLE, Ky. — In the two years since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the federal right to an abortion, Democrats have wielded the decision and subsequent Republican efforts to restrict abortion rights as a deadly political weapon.
Now, just three months before an election in which the man who appointed the justices who ended Roe v. Wade will once again top the ticket, Republicans are bracing for another onslaught of attack advertisements painting them as villains straight out of “The Handmaid’s Tale.”
In interviews with legislators from the swing states that will decide the presidency, Republicans said they see Democrats telegraphing their strategy ahead of the electoral stretch run — and they acknowledge that, so far, the GOP has yet to come up with an effective counterpunch.
“It’s the only thing they have to talk about. They’re wrong on inflation, they’re wrong on the border,” Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R) said in an interview. “We have a challenge on abortion with voters. We haven’t done a very good job.”
Since the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, 14 states have banned virtually all abortions. Another six states have imposed limits on abortions between six and 15 weeks after conception. Even legislators who support abortion restrictions say those laws could put fellow Republicans in swing districts at risk.
“If they push my type of abortion restriction, then they’ll lose and somebody who’s far more liberal in terms of allowing abortion replaces them,” Arizona Sen. John Kavanagh (R) said.
In Kavanagh’s state, Republicans hold the narrowest of majorities in both the state House and Senate. The legislature voted this year to overturn a Civil War-era ban on abortions, passed before Arizona was admitted to the Union, when a small handful of Republicans joined every Democrat to nix the old law.
That vote left a ban on abortions after 15 weeks in place. But this year, Arizona is one of at least seven states — and potentially as many as 11 — in which voters will decide whether to codify abortion rights through ballot measures, at the same time as they vote for legislative candidates.
“Republicans have been largely absent on discussing the abortion policy in a way that is reflective of the modern times we live in,” said Arizona Rep. Matt Gress (R). “Just banning it outright is not going to pan out well. Voters — Republicans, Democrats, independents, men, women — are against complete bans.”
Gress, a freshman who represents a swing district in Scottsdale, was one of the few Republicans to support overturning the 1864 ban. That vote cost him his committee assignments in a move widely seen as retribution from his fellow Republicans.
Gress said Republicans who had called for the end of Roe v. Wade had not counted on what might happen if they got their wish, which the Dobbs decision provided.
“Republicans have hidden behind Roe v. Wade to say, yeah, we need to strike down Roe v. Wade, but didn’t think about the policy consequences that would follow and what the popular sentiment is among the electorate,” he said. “We’ve never really been in a good position when it comes to abortion.”
Democrats have good reason to rely once again on abortion rights as a political message. After the Dobbs decision, Democrats had one of the best midterm elections ever for a party occupying the White House, limiting losses in the U.S. House of Representatives, gaining a seat in the U.S. Senate and winning governorships in three states, including Arizona.
The following year, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) sought to blunt the onslaught by proposing a 15-week abortion ban, one he pitched to voters as a “reasonable” and “common sense” compromise. But Democrats maintained their majority in the Senate and recaptured control of the House of Delegates.
“Every Democrat ran on it,” Virginia Sen. Barbara Favola (D), who has authored several measures protecting abortion rights, said in an interview. “This is the first time in 50 years the U.S. Supreme Court reversed a right, and people got that. They’re worried, they’re worried about their daughters and granddaughters.”
The party is counting on the same strategy working once again this year.
“Behind every abortion ban in the states is a GOP majority. And the thousands of Democratic state legislative candidates knocking doors this summer and fall will be connecting face-to-face with voters about the impacts of these bans and the restrictions on their day-to-day lives,” said Will Rusche, a spokesperson for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.
A spokesperson for the Republican State Leadership Committee did not respond to a request for comment.
Republican legislative leaders signaled they will prosecute a campaign that targets Democrats on border security and the rising cost of living. They will accuse Democrats of allowing abortions late in a pregnancy, after fetal viability, in an effort to paint their rivals as the extremists.
“We should be talking about the fact that we are trying to find a consensus so that not every election is about one topic. The other side doesn’t want that to happen,” Vos said.
But Democrats have settled on a new message, one that seeks to appeal to women voters who might otherwise favor Republican candidates.
“The message that I think crosses party lines is, this is no place for government. That message resonates with moderate independents and with moderate Republicans, because their mantra has been, for years, limited government,” Favola said. “This is no place for government.”