North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein (D) has built a substantial lead over his Republican rival for the governor’s office, just weeks before voters begin receiving their ballots in one of the most closely divided states in America.
Stein leads Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) by 10 percentage points or more in three out of the four most recent public polls in the race to replace retiring Gov. Roy Cooper (D). On Wednesday, Fox News released a new poll showing Stein leading by a 54%-43% margin.
That followed a poll conducted by SurveyUSA for High Point University last week, in which Stein led 48%-34%. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted earlier this month shows Stein ahead 49% to 39%. An Emerson College poll conducted for The Hill newspaper, released Thursday, shows Stein leading by a narrower 47%-41% margin.
The two most recent polls show Stein holding big leads among women and among African American voters, who made up about a quarter of the vote in the 2020 elections.
In both polls, Stein and Robinson tie among male voters, who are generally more favorable to Republicans. Robinson leads narrowly among white voters, who make up about two-thirds of the North Carolina electorate.
“Voters across North Carolina are learning about the contrast between Josh Stein and Mark Robinson. Josh fights for people; Mark Robinson fights job-killing culture wars,” Stein’s campaign manager Jeff Allen said in a statement. “But make no mistake: this race will be very close. Our campaign is working hard to earn every vote and make sure people know that as Governor, Josh Stein will build a safer, stronger North Carolina.”
Robinson’s campaign said they were heartened by the number of voters who remain undecided about two months before Election Day.
“Polls have consistently underestimated Republican support in North Carolina for several cycles now and with a large portion of the electorate still undecided as we continue to ramp up our efforts on the ground and on the airwaves, Mark Robinson remains in a strong position to win in November,” said Mike Lonergan, Robinson’s communications director.
Stein, who has served two terms as attorney general, has vastly outraised and outspent Robinson, who is in his first term as lieutenant governor. Stein’s campaign reported raising nearly $27.4 million through the end of June, the close of the last reporting period. Robinson reported pulling in almost $11.5 million through the same deadline.
Stein’s campaign has pitched their candidate as a tough-on-crime moderate in the mold of Cooper, who twice won the governorship after serving as attorney general. Democrats have pointed to myriad controversial statements from Robinson on the role of women in society, gay and lesbian rights, and his position opposing abortion rights. One Stein campaign advertisement from June shows only Robinson on camera making comments about restricting abortion.
Robinson’s campaign is echoing national Republican themes castigating the rising cost of living during President Biden’s and Gov. Cooper’s tenures in office.
“Unlike my opponent, I know what it’s like to live paycheck to paycheck,” Robinson says in a recent ad. “All over this great state, families are working too hard to make ends meet.”
Though North Carolina is a Republican-leaning swing state at the national level, and though Republicans hold supermajorities in the state House and Senate, Democrats have a winning track record in races for the state’s top job. Democrats have won nine of the last 12 gubernatorial elections, and seven of the last eight.
But the margins have been tight. Cooper won election in 2016 by defeating then-Gov. Pat McCrory (R) by a margin of just over 10,000 votes out of about 4.6 million cast. He won re-election in 2020 by a margin of 51%-47%, at the same time then-President Trump carried the state by about 1.3 percentage points.