Ohio voters appear set to overhaul the way the state redraws its political boundaries for the third time in less than a decade this year as a new poll shows a ballot measure that would implement a bipartisan citizen commission leading by a wide margin.
The YouGov survey, conducted for Bowling Green State University, found 60% of voters back Issue 1, the proposed amendment to reform the redistricting process, while just 20% are opposed.
Majorities of both Democratic and independent voters favor the initiative, while Republican voters are more closely divided: Among Republicans, 41% back the initiative, while 34% are opposed.
But opponents still have a month to derail the measure as public opinion forms: Just 22% say they have heard a lot about Issue 1, 51% have heard a little about it, and 28% say they have heard nothing at all.
“Voters tend to pay the most attention to the top of the ticket during presidential election years. In this respect, it’s not surprising that nearly three in ten Ohio voters have not heard anything about Issue 1,” said Melissa Miller, a political scientist at Bowling Green State University.
Redistricting reform supporters turned in more than 535,000 valid signatures to qualify the proposal for November’s ballot, far more than the 431,000 required to gain ballot access. The measure, if passed, would establish an Ohio Citizens Redistricting Commission, a 15-member panel of non-politicians who would have to reach agreement to redraw district lines.
Ohio would become the ninth state to task a non-politician commission with redrawing congressional district lines. Colorado and Michigan established new independent commissions in 2018.
At the moment, Ohio’s district lines are drawn by a political commission that includes the governor, the state auditor, the secretary of state and representatives of the House and Senate majority and minority leaders. Because of Ohio’s recent voting patterns, that current structure gives Republicans five of the seven seats on the panel, enough to muscle through favorable district lines.
After the last decennial census, those Republicans drew maps that disproportionately favored their candidates. Republicans hold 11 of Ohio’s 15 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, and supermajorities in both the state House and Senate.
Issue 1 is the third time Ohio voters have considered an overhaul to the existing redistricting system. In 2015, voters approved a measure creating a bipartisan redistricting panel. In 2018, voters tweaked the rules for drawing congressional district lines meant to encourage bipartisan agreements.
The YouGov survey polled 1,000 likely voters between Sept. 18-27. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.