Good morning, it’s Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Happy Election Day! We hope your voting experience is as smooth as possible. In today’s edition, we round up the craziest election cycle ever:
Top Stories
ELECTION DAY: The most expensive, most closely fought and most bitterly partisan election in modern times comes to a close today as the last voters head to the polls, joining the 77 million who cast ballots early or by mail. Public and private polling has showed an essentially tied race for months. But here are two plausible scenarios to explain either outcome once the results come in:
TRUMP: Former President Donald Trump has now appeared at the top of the Republican ticket three times — and in the previous two cases, polls understated his support. The theory was that “shy” Trump voters who didn’t want to tell pollsters they backed the bombastic businessman helped mask the true level of his support, and they may be doing so again.
HARRIS: Vice President Kamala Harris represents an updated version of that shy voter theory: In every election since Roe v. Wade was overturned, it’s been Democrats who have outperformed their poll numbers. If women and younger voters express their outrage at Roe’s demise, it may be Harris who benefits.
BOTTOM LINE: This election has felt like a duck in water: The polls have hardly moved, even while the two sides are paddling like the dickens under the surface. One can use the race’s fundamentals to argue for either candidate — Americans don’t re-elect defeated politicians, or the incumbent party suffers when views of the economy are so negative, both valid points.
We’ll be live-blogging the whole election all night long. Join us!
THE SENATE: Republicans appear likely to capture control of the Senate, starting with West Virginia and Sen. Jon Tester’s (D) seat in Montana. Democrats have the longest of long shots in Nebraska, Texas and Florida, but the GOP’s target list is longer and full of narrower polls. It won’t be a surprise to see 51 Republican senators next year, and it might not be a shock to see 53 or 54.
THE HOUSE: Never in American history have the two chambers of Congress flipped in opposite directions in a presidential year. That could happen this year, as Democrats appear poised to make gains in the Republican-controlled House. Watch big states like California, New York and Pennsylvania, which have big numbers of tossup seats.
IN CONCLUSION: In our experience, most toss-up races tend to break one way at the end. That happened to the Republicans’ benefit in 2010 and 2014. Everything broke for Democrats in 2006 and 2008. As we grow more partisan and ticket-splitting wanes, we might see a more conclusive result tonight than people expect.
In Politics & Business
PLURIBUS NEWS: We’ve gathered all our election preview stories in one place. Click to read our gubernatorial election preview, our preview of critical attorneys general races, our complete guide to this year’s initiatives, referenda and amendments on the ballot, and our 5 swing states to watch in legislative contests.
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SECURITY: All 51 attorneys general released a joint statement urging voters to accept the results of today’s elections and keep the peace tonight. The attorneys general said they issued the statement in response to polls that show concern about potential unrest. (Ohio Capital Journal)
RHODE ISLAND: Voters appear poised to reject a proposal to hold a new constitutional convention in Rhode Island. A new University of New Hampshire poll found just 34% of voters back Question 1, ordering a constitutional convention, while 47% will vote against. (Boston Globe)
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey (D) stumped with former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) on Monday, the final day before Craig faces former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R). (Boston Globe) Notable because Ayotte has essentially run her campaign as a referendum against Massachusetts.
By The Numbers
$5.82 billion: The amount nonresident tourists spent visiting Montana in the last two years, a record high. Visitors spent more than half that total in the areas around Glacier National Park and Yellowstone National Park. (Daily Montanan)
$7.5 billion: The estimated boost to North Carolina’s gross domestic product if the state introduces affordable, accessible child care, according to a study by the state Department of Commerce. (NC Health News)
We have it on good authority that legislative leaders are likely to consider a big child care package next year.
Off The Wall
The New York Times rounded up America’s weirdest polling places: A laundromat in Chicago, an arcade in Ames, an airport in San Luis Obispo all made the list. So did the International Space Station, where orbiting astronauts get encrypted ballots to send back to earth. (New York Times)
A pair of Judy Garland’s ruby slippers is up for auction this month, concluding with bidding in Dallas on Dec. 7. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) has earmarked $100,000 to bid on the slippers, but that may not be enough — in a criminal case against the men who allegedly stole the slippers in 2005, prosecutors valued the shoes at $3.5 million. (Fargo Forum)
The saga of these particular stolen slippers is long and complicated.
Quote of the Day
“I didn’t have much to do on the farm at that time, so I thought it would be fun.”
— Helen Burgstaler, 92, who has served as an election judge in Minnesota’s Crow Wing County since 1950, when she was 18. (MPR News)