Good morning, it’s Monday, November 4, 2024. In today’s edition, we preview this year’s key legislative battlegrounds, final poll shows Ayotte up in New Hampshire; state Supreme Court seats in focus:
Top Stories
ELECTIONS: Democrats and Republicans are pouring an unprecedented amount of money into key legislative races across the country in hopes of flipping party control. But you don’t have to learn a lot of new geography to follow along: The Venn diagram of presidential swing states and legislative battlegrounds is almost a perfect circle.
ARIZONA: Republicans are defending two-seat majorities in the House and Senate. Democrats are on offense in fast-growing Scottsdale, suburban Tucson and in a border district stretching to Yuma. Everyone has their eye on the 17th District, outside Tucson, where Republicans are defending two House seats and a Senate seat. If those seats flip, Democrats will wrest control of the legislature for the first time since 1992.
MICHIGAN: Democrats are defending their two-seat majority in the state House, and with it their trifecta control of state government. Republicans have their eyes on three districts in suburban Detroit and more exurban Calhoun County. Democrats are aiming to bulk up their majority in an Oakland County district that President Biden narrowly carried.
MINNESOTA: The story of the 2010s was a story of Democratic decline in rural areas. In Minnesota’s Iron Range, Democrats went from dominant to dormant — and now one of the last Democrats up north, Rep. Dave Lislegard (D), is retiring. Republicans need to win his seat and several others in the Minneapolis exurbs and along the border with Wisconsin to reclaim control.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Republicans in the state Senate hold 14 of 24 seats, and Democrats have their eyes on three senators seeking new terms in districts near the Massachusetts border. Democrats concede a majority isn’t the likeliest outcome. Control of the 400-seat state House will take a while to unravel.
PENNSYLVANIA: The battle for America’s only divided legislature — Democrats control the House, Republicans hold the Senate — will come down to the same voters who will decide the fates of Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump. Democrats expect to make gains in the Collar Counties, once the quintessential swing territory. Republicans are aiming for gains in Allegheny County, as blue collar workers shift right.
DEMOCRATS: Democratic strategists are aiming for lower bars in some states where Republicans hold supermajorities, like North Carolina and Kansas. Winning just a few seats would give a Democratic governor’s veto a lot more weight. Democrats hope for gains in places like Wisconsin, too, where redistricting should help.
REPUBLICANS: At a time when Trump was railing against absentee and early voting, state-level Republicans were going the opposite way. The Republican State Leadership Committee invested big in early voting programs that they say helped them limit losses in Virginia last year — and may help the entire ticket this year.
Read more about the legislative landscape, and check out some of our cool maps of key battlegrounds, right here.
In Politics & Business
NEW HAMPSHIRE: A final Granite State Poll from the University of New Hampshire finds former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) leading Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) 48% to 44%, with Libertarian Stephen Villee at 1%. Both candidates have unfavorable ratings higher than their favorable ratings. (UNH)
Don’t miss our colleague Sophie Quinton’s preview of the closest gubernatorial contest in America this year.
NORTH CAROLINA: The New York Times gives us one last chance to gauge how far Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) has fallen. Their final survey shows Attorney General Josh Stein (D) ahead of Robinson by a 56% to 38% margin. Stein is winning 16% of self-identified Republicans; Robinson claims 1% of Democrats. (New York Times)
ARKANSAS: Supreme Court Justices Karen Baker and Rhonda Wood are vying to replace retiring Chief Justice Dan Kemp. Whoever wins will become the first woman elected to the state’s top judicial post. (Associated Press)
CONNECTICUT: Secretary of State Stephanie Thomas’s office shipped fire suppression devices to town clerks last week to place inside absentee ballot drop boxes, after incendiary devices were set off in drop boxes in Washington and Oregon. Thomas said the move was a proactive effort to help towns, rather than a reflection of any present threat. (CT Mirror)
PEOPLE: Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is recovering after being treated by paramedics at a campaign rally on Sunday. Ivey’s office said she was dehydrated and treated with fluids. (Associated Press) We’re glad she’s okay!
By The Numbers
82: The number of state Supreme Court seats up for election in 33 states this year. Democrats and Republicans have spent millions on battleground seats in Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Arizona and Texas. (Associated Press)
Our friends at Bolts Magazine are the best at covering these races. Check out their preview of what’s up, and what’s at stake, right here.
79: The average number of contests appearing on a Maricopa County ballot this year, stretching the ballot to two pages for the first time in almost two decades. The larger-than-usual ballot has meant a delay in ballot deliveries. (AZ Mirror)
By contrast, those of us in D.C. had just eight races on the ballot, including two shadow representative and senator roles.
Off The Wall
Thousands of people lined the streets of Dublin last week for a Halloween parade that turned out to be an AI-generated stunt. A Pakistan-based site promised a parade from a local performing arts group that had actually halted its annual tradition during the pandemic. (UPI)
Speaking of AI, don’t trust a chatbot to provide accurate voting information. New York Attorney General Letitia James’s (D) office is warning that recent tests have found chatbots “frequently provided inaccurate information” when asked for election details. (Albany Times-Union)
Quote of the Day
“I am especially proud of the workers and voters of Western North Carolina. You are an inspiration to us all.”
— North Carolina Board of Elections Executive Director Karen Brinson Bell, on massive voter turnout in the 25 western counties hit hardest by Hurricane Helene. Voters in those counties turned out at a higher rate than the state average. (Associated Press)