Good morning, it’s Wednesday, November 6, 2024. In today’s edition, parsing last night’s results; Trump gained among Latinos, women and in big cities; abortion measures pass in seven of 10 states:
Top Stories
STATE OF PLAY: The Associated Press projected former President Donald Trump will recapture the White House with at least 277 electoral votes as of 5:34 a.m. ET, compared with 224 votes for Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump leads in Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Alaska, potentially giving him up to 312 electoral votes once all the ballots are counted.
WHAT IT MEANS: Trump will become the first man since Grover Cleveland to win re-election after losing the White House. Trump’s vote tallies improved this year in rural areas, in urban areas, and among key demographic groups — if the exit polls are correct, the Democratic coalition is in serious jeopardy as a new Trumpian coalition rises.
GEOGRAPHY: We’ve known that Republicans are running up the score in rural counties since Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) won election in 2021. But Trump improved on his performance even in big cities, all Democratic bastions. Trump won 21% in Philadelphia, up from 18% in 2020; 39% in Detroit’s Wayne County, up from 30%; and 32% in Milwaukee, up from 29%.
Those don’t sound like huge improvements. But in states where elections are decided by tens of thousands of votes, even incremental gains matter.
DEMOGRAPHICS: Trump improved his performance — or Harris underperformed President Biden’s 2020 performance — among moderates, independents, suburban and rural voters. But the two groups that stood out to us were women and Latino voters: Trump scored 45% of the Latino vote, a 13 point improvement over 2020, and a majority among Latino men. And among women, Harris won 54%, three points below Biden’s performance.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Democrats thought they had two silver bullets: Trump’s unpopularity, and their abortion rights message. Neither worked. The Democratic coalition that Barack Obama cobbled together, and Joe Biden reassembled, is broken. The future of the Republican Party is now more Donald Trump’s than Ronald Reagan’s.
CONGRESS: Republicans captured control of the U.S. Senate, picking up a Democratic-held open seat in West Virginia and knocking off incumbent Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.). We won’t know full U.S. House results for a while — maybe weeks, as California takes its time to count — but Democrats made gains, preserving their chance of dividing government in Washington.
Note: The GOP’s big night in the Senate could get even better. Democratic incumbents are trailing this morning in Pennsylvania and Nevada.
GOVERNORS: Eleven states elected governors on Tuesday, and in every single race the incumbent party maintained control. The closest race came in New Hampshire, where former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) beat out former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) by an eight-point margin — a wider edge than polls had suggested. Read more here.
In Politics & Business
ABORTION: Measures to protect abortion rights in state constitutions won passage in Arizona, Missouri, New York, Maryland, Nevada, Colorado and Montana. Voters in South Dakota and Florida rejected measures to protect abortion rights; remember, Florida needed to hit the 60% threshold, but just 57% voted in favor. Nebraska voters backed a ballot measure imposing new abortion restrictions. Read more here.
CITIZENSHIP: Voters in eight states approved ballot measures to prohibit state and local governments from allowing noncitizens to vote, all by wide margins. The closest contest came in Kentucky, where only 62% voted in favor. Read more here.
RANKED CHOICE: Voters in Washington, D.C., approved a measure to establish ranked-choice voting and to open partisan primaries to independents. Measures to establish ranked-choice voting appeared headed for defeat in Idaho, Arizona and Oregon.
DRUGS: Florida voters failed to reach the 60% threshold required to legalize recreational marijuana, in an initiative that attracted 56% of the vote. North Dakota and South Dakota appeared to reject recreational pot measures again. Massachusetts voters rejected a measure to legalize psychedelic substances. Voters in Nebraska approved two measures to legalize medical marijuana. Read more here.
By The Numbers
$1.37 billion: The amount Kroger will pay a bipartisan coalition of 30 states as part of a settlement over the grocery giant’s role in the opioid crisis. As part of the settlement, Kroger has agreed to monitor, report and share data about suspicious activity related to opioid prescriptions. (Arizona Republic)
8,650: The number of battery electric vehicles on the road in Maine. A surge in residents taking advantage of a $2,000 rebate offer has drained the $1.4 million fund a quasi-government agency, Efficiency Maine, had set aside to help residents convert. (Maine Public Radio)
$74,019.05: The price of bitcoin as of 8:37 a.m. on Wednesday, up 6.7% after Trump’s victory. Trump has pledged to be a crypto-friendly president.
Off The Wall
Former U.S. Attorney Nick Brown (D) will be Washington State’s next attorney general after he bested Pasco Mayor Pete Serrano (R) on Tuesday. (Seattle Times) Brown was the favorite, but we hasten to add a line to his biography: He appears to be the first former contestant on CBS’s long-running “Survivor” to win public office. He appeared on the show’s second season.
Maine voters appear to like their existing state flag. Election results from Tuesday show just 45% of Mainers voted to replace the existing state flag with a throwback design showing a pine treen and the North Star. (Portland Press Herald)
Quote of the Day
“I don’t think we’ve had a night this good in ten years.”
— Vermont Republican Party chairman Paul Dame, after his party broke a Democratic supermajority and ousted at least two prominent committee chairs. (VT Digger)