Voters in eight states will elect new governors in November’s general election, while three incumbent Republicans fight for re-election in conservative states.
Observers, and the governors overseeing their respective party’s campaigns for those offices, say gubernatorial contests are unique in American politics: They are some of the few races in which voters can cross party lines, when the results of a federal contest does not predetermine results at the state level.
“Running governor’s races are very different than running Senate races,” Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) said in a Pluribus News event previewing this year’s contests. “There can be quite a number of ticket splitters, and I think we’ll see that in a number of states this year.”
Watch: Previewing the 2024 gubernatorial races with Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) and Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R)
Still, many of the same issues that dominate the neck-and-neck contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump — economic anxiety over inflation, abortion rights, and immigration rates — are playing out at the state level. And both Democrats and Republicans hope that the enthusiasm generated by the presidential contest will trickle down to the gubernatorial level.
“Certainly you can see the excitement that the Harris-Walz ticket has generated,” said Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D), who heads the Democratic Governors Association. “There is a lot of excitement about the ticket that’s there. It’s fresh, it’s new.”
Kelly said she believed the Democratic candidates focusing on abortion rights, two years after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade, would help drive new voters to the polls.
“We’re on the offense here,” Kelly said. “It will be a get-out-the-vote driver.”
But Reeves, in whose state the ultimately successful challenge to the Roe precedent began, said voters are focused on other issues.
“The vast majority of undecided voters today, when you ask them what their No. 1 issue is, it’s going to be focused on economic issues, focused on the border,” Reeves said. “Gas prices are up, food prices are up, people, particularly those in the middle, do not think they are better off than four years ago.”
Here is a synopsis of all the races on the ballot in November, starting with the four garnering the most attention:
New Hampshire
Polls show a tight race between former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), who won their primary elections in early September — the shortest primary-to-general sprint in the nation.
While New Hampshire is no longer a presidential swing state, the state remains evenly divided. Gov. Chris Sununu (R) won election four times, including in 2016, in the same election in which Ayotte lost her seat in the Senate. Republicans control both chambers of the legislature by narrow margins, while Democrats hold New Hampshire’s two seats in both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.
Ayotte has the money advantage, but Democrats are bombarding the airwaves in the expensive Boston media market. The few post-primary polls released so far show Ayotte with a margin-of-error lead, but this is the only true toss-up race on the map this year.
Washington
Washington State has not elected a Republican governor since John Spellman (R) won a single term in 1980. Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) looks set to continue that streak, albeit in the face of a reasonable challenge from former U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert (R), a throw-back to a previous era of relatively centrist Republicans.
The latest survey, from the respected Elway Poll, found Ferguson leading Reichert 50%-39% — in spite of Reichert’s lead among independent voters. That speaks to Washington’s increasingly blue hue.
Gov. Jay Inslee (D), who is retiring, won his third and final term against a Trump-inspired Republican by a 13-point margin. But Republicans have come closer in more recent elections; Inslee won his first term by just 3 points in 2012, and Republicans came within 133 votes of winning the state in 2004. Reichert isn’t cooked, but he is the distinct underdog.
North Carolina
This was supposed to be the barn-burner contest of the cycle. Then Republicans nominated Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R), a bomb-throwing, unapologetic culture warrior who seemingly made it his mission to alienate every moderate in the state.
An explosive report from CNN last month found Robinson had posted extreme views supportive of Adolf Hitler and denigrating Martin Luther King Jr. — among other lurid comments — on a pornographic website over the last several decades. What was perhaps most surprising about the report was just how many of those same things Robinson had said on camera at various points over just the last year or two.
Democrats nominated Attorney General Josh Stein (D), a former state senator from Raleigh who has run on his record as a prosecutor. After the CNN report, polls show Stein running away with the contest — so much so that some Republicans worry Robinson’s toxicity may impact Trump’s chances in this swing state.
Indiana
Democrats are making a late play in the race to succeed retiring Gov. Eric Holcomb (R), shoveling $600,000 into campaign ads backing former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick (D).
That decision seems driven by a single poll, conducted for the DGA, that shows McCormick within striking distance of U.S. Sen. Mike Braun (R), thanks to a Libertarian candidate who’s polling near double digits.
Braun is the front-runner, and any hope McCormick has is based on that Libertarian, Donald Rainwater, repeating his performance from four years ago when he scored 11% of the vote. Even then, with Rainwater presumably winning over some conservative voters, Holcomb won re-election by 24 points.
Delaware
Gov. John Carney (D), leaving office in the face of term limits, has an unconventional project in retirement: He’s set to become the next mayor of Wilmington, his hometown, after winning the Democratic primary in September.
His likely replacement is Matt Meyer, the New Castle County executive who beat Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long (D) in the Democratic primary. Meyer faces House Minority Leader Mike Ramone (R) in November; the only public surveys show Meyer leading by double digits.
Missouri
Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) won a nasty Republican primary earlier this year, but Missouri is sufficiently red that he remains the front-runner against state House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D).
Even though abortion rights have been a silver bullet for Democrats, Missouri is a stretch. The latest poll, conducted last month by Emerson College, found Kehoe leading Quade 52%-36%; the same poll found 58% of Missouri voters would back a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights.
Montana
Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) is seeking a second term against Ryan Busse (D), a former firearm industry executive — in a state where being pro-gun is a requirement.
There aren’t many public polls of Montana voters — even those that poll the tight contest between Sen. Jon Tester (D) and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) don’t bother to poll the gubernatorial contest — but the few that are out there show Gianforte with a healthy lead.
Montana has a history of electing Democratic governors; Gianforte is the first Republican to lead the state since Judy Martz left office in 2000. But Gianforte is likely to cruise to a second term.
North Dakota
U.S. Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R) took three-quarters of the vote in the Republican primary against Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller (R) in June. Armstrong is likely to score a similar, if not quite as big, win against state Sen. Merrill Piepkorn (D) in November.
North Dakota hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since George Sinner (D) won re-election in 1988.
Utah
Gov. Spencer Cox (R) won a surprisingly close Republican primary after his conservative challenger, state Rep. Phil Lyman (R), scored a win at the state Republican convention. Cox outlasted Lyman at the ballot box by just under 9 points.
Lyman is running as a write-in candidate, but Cox is still heavily favored over state Rep. Brian King (D), the former House minority leader, and three other minor party candidates.
Vermont
To Reeves’s point about crossover voting: Gov. Phil Scott (R) won re-election in 2022 with 71% of the vote — and he didn’t spend a dollar on television advertisements.
Scott scored a third term at the same time U.S. Sen. Peter Welch (D) won his seat in the Senate by a 40-point margin, which augers well for the governor even as Harris is likely to carry Vermont’s electoral votes by a huge edge.
This year, Scott faces Esther Charlestin, co-chair of the Vermont Commission on Women and a former Middlebury selectman. Both Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman (D) and former Gov. Howard Dean (D) considered, but ultimately opted against, challenging Scott. If either of them had run, it might have been a race to watch. As it stands now, Scott is just trying to break his personal best.
West Virginia
Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) came within 3.3 percentage points of knocking off U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin (I) in 2018. Now, he’s in a much better position for a promotion after outlasting three other prominent Republicans in this year’s GOP primary.
Morrisey faces Huntington Mayor Steve Williams (D) in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Jim Justice (R), who is likely to replace Manchin in the Senate. Morrisey should have smooth sailing to the governor’s mansion.