Democrats and Republicans are pouring an unprecedented amount of money into key state legislative races across the country as both sides vie for control of critical battleground states.
Many of the most contested state legislative chambers overlap with the presidential battlegrounds — both sides see pickup opportunities in Republican-controlled Arizona, Democratic-controlled Michigan and evenly divided Pennsylvania.
Here are the key races to watch in each battleground state:
Arizona
Republicans control the state House by a narrow 31-29 margin, and Democrats are on the hunt in two distinct parts of the state: Maricopa County, home of Phoenix, and the Tucson suburbs.
Democrats hope to carry both seats in District 4, which covers Scottsdale. They hold one of the two seats, but Rep. Matt Gress (R) is seeking re-election in a district that’s moving to the left; President Biden carried the district by less than a percentage point in 2020.
Image credit: Dave’s Redistricting App
They also hope to pick off a Republican-held seat in the 17th District, outside Tucson, where Reps. Rachel Jones (R) and Cory McGarr (R) are running for re-election in a district that former President Donald Trump carried by 4 points in 2020.
Republicans are defending Rep. Michele Pena (R), who holds a district that stretches from Yuma along the border to the Tucson suburbs. Biden carried District 23 by a 14-point margin four years ago.
Republicans hold a similarly slim advantage, 16-14, in the state Senate. Democrats have their eyes on the 2nd District, in north Phoenix and Deer Valley, where Sen. Shawnna Bolick (R) is seeking a new term.
Strategists in both parties cited the race in District 17 as the one likely to become the majority-maker. Former Sen. Vince Leach (R) is seeking election again two years after being ousted in the Republican primary in his suburban Tucson district, while Democrats are relying on John McLean, a first-time candidate.
Michigan
Democrats control Michigan’s legislature by the barest of margins: They hold 20 of 38 Senate seats and 56 of 110 House seats. The Senate isn’t up for re-election until 2026, but a two-seat swing in the House would create divided control of Michigan government for the last two years of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s (D) term.
Republicans are aiming to capture three seats Trump carried in 2020: House District 27 in Detroit’s Wayne County, House District 44 in Battle Creek’s Calhoun County, and House District 58 in suburban Macomb County. Democratic incumbents are seeking re-election in all three.
Oakland, Macomb and Wayne counties in Michigan. Image credit: Dave’s Redistricting App
Democrats have at least one pickup shot in House District 55, in Oakland County, where Rep. Mark Tisdel (R) is looking for another term. Biden carried his district by two points four years ago.
Democrats have lost serious ground in the northern part of Michigan in recent years, but they maintain two holdout districts that Republicans see as winnable only if the rest of the state breaks hard right: The 103rd District, which covers Traverse City, and the 109th in the Upper Peninsula.
Minnesota
Democrats won control of the Minnesota legislature in 2022, carrying 70 of 134 seats in the House. Republicans need four seats to recapture control.
To do so, they are eyeing the last Democratic holdout in the Iron Range, House District 7B, where Rep. Dave Lislegard (D) is retiring. They also have hopes in House District 18A, where Rep. Jeff Brand (D) is seeking re-election in the Minneapolis exurbs, and in House District 26A, an open seat on the border with Wisconsin east of the Twin Cities.
Democrats are defending their majority by targeting two Republican-held open seats — House Districts 41A and 41B — in the St. Paul exurbs. Biden carried both those seats in 2020, by 5 points and 1 point respectively.
Districts in and around Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minn. Image credit: Dave’s Redistricting App.
Senate control rests on the outcome of the only race up for a vote this year, in Senate District 45, where Sen. Kelly Morrison (D) resigned to run for Congress. Ann Johnson Stewart (D) is favored over Kathleen Fowke (R) in the district based in Minnetonka, which Biden won by 16 points in 2020.
New Hampshire
All 400 seats in the House are up for election this year, and New Hampshire’s multi-member district plan makes forecasting a massive challenge — we joke that anyone who lands at Manchester’s airport gets a House seat as a door prize.
Republicans hold a slim majority of 197 seats to 191 held by Democrats. Eleven seats are vacant, not an uncommon figure in a legislature where the annual salary is just $100. It’s likely neither party will know they’ve won control until several days after the election.
Republicans hold a 14-10 majority in the Senate. Democrats are aiming to oust Sens. Dan Innis (R) in Grafton and Merrimack counties; Denise Ricciardi (R), who represents a district stretching from Manchester’s Hillsborough County south and west to the Massachusetts border; and Kevin Avard (R), who holds a seat in the Nashua suburbs.
New Hampshire state Senate districts. Image credit: Dave’s Redistricting App
Republicans have their eye on Sen. Shannon Chandley (D), whose district is sandwiched between Ricciardi’s and Avard’s outside of Nashua. Biden carried that seat by 9 points in 2020.
Pennsylvania
Democrats surprised observers by winning a 102-101 majority in the state House in the 2022 midterm elections, meaning every seat is the potential majority-maker.
Democrats expect to make gains in the Collar Counties around Philadelphia; they point to six districts in what have become America’s defining swing suburbs as opportunities.
Republicans are looking for gains in Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County, where they expect Trump to overperform.
Competitive races in Pennsylvania. Republican-held seats are in red, Democratic-held seats in blue. Image credit: Ballotpedia.
In the Senate, Republicans hold 28 of 50 seats, and neither side expects a massive shift to imperil their majority.
State Sen. John DiSanto (R) is not seeking re-election in Dauphin County, in the Philadelphia exurbs, opening an opportunity for Democrats. State Sen. James Brewster (D) isn’t running for re-election in his McKeesport district, a chance for a Republican pickup, though Biden carried the district by seven points in 2020.
The one other race to watch is in Erie County, where Sen. Daniel Laughlin (R) is running for a new term. He faces former news broadcaster Jim Wertz (D) in a district Trump carried by just two points in 2020.