The first three months of an odd year is the busiest quarter of a legislative cycle. By the end of January, 44 states will have kicked off their sessions, setting new goals and priorities after an election season that left majorities intact in all but a few states.
And states are already getting set at the starting line: Lawmakers in Texas have pre-filed thousands of bills. California legislators are already in session.
If history is any guide, some of the earliest states to kick off sessions will set the tempo for the rest. Recall two years ago, when Iowa lawmakers wasted no time in approving a school voucher program expansion that became a model for other red states around the country.
Here are the big policy trends we expect to emerge in the coming months:
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: If 2024 kicked off the race to regulate AI in blue states, this year will represent the first big red state foray into the fast-emerging space. We’re watching legislation introduced by Texas Rep. Giovanni Capriglione (R), whose bill may become the template from which other GOP lawmakers build.
TECHNOLOGY: Legislators are trying to regulate the interaction between social media platforms and minor users, with mixed success. Their next target may be AI companion bots, platforms that allow users to form relationships with artificial personalities, after high-profile cases in Florida and Texas where teenagers were allegedly urged to harm themselves.
ENERGY: The booming demand for compute power from data centers is the new gold rush, as states throw economic development money at tech firms that are spending billions to boost their AI abilities. All those data centers consume a lot of energy, and states are turning to green energy and nuclear power to meet demand.
ABORTION: Most blue states have done what they can to codify and protect abortion rights. But red states are expanding their fight to restrict abortion access, led by Louisiana, where Gov. Jeff Landry (R) has already signed legislation making access to two common abortion-inducing drugs more difficult. Expect other red states to take their own shots at mifepristone and misoprostol.
HEALTH CARE: As the Trump administration prepares to take office, red states are preparing new applications to include work requirements for Medicaid recipients. South Dakota, Ohio and Montana have already made their plans public, while Florida is delaying an expansion of a children’s health insurance program in hopes the Trump team will side with them in a dispute over missed premiums.
HOUSING: In policy, success often breeds success. The states that passed massive housing reform packages in 2024 — Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado and others — are likely to inspire regulatory reform efforts in other states too. Easing environmental rules is the most likely red state play, while both Democrats and Republicans are likely to review single- and multi-family zoning rules.
GOVERNMENT REFORM: The end of the pandemic-era budget boom and Trump’s focus on his Department of Government Efficiency are likely to spur a new rush to overhaul state-level agencies as well. Already, red states are kicking off their own DOGE-like programs meant to trim the fat.