Efforts to fully legalize marijuana are hitting a wall after years of success in the states.
With ballot measures failing this month in Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota, cannabis advocates acknowledge that few of the 26 states yet to allow recreational use are likely to do so, at least in the near term. And with President-elect Donald Trump unlikely to make full legalization a priority, the dream of a nationwide market seems as far off as ever.
Still, advocates vow to keep working to end prohibition. They are hoping to fully legalize marijuana in one or two more states.
“Our movement has been, in some ways, a victim of our own success,” said Paul Armentano, deputy director of the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws, a Washington, D.C. based group that advocates for cannabis legalization.
The nation is now almost evenly split between states where adults can legally possess and use weed recreationally and states where they face criminal penalties for doing so.
Lawmakers in holdout states tend to lean conservative and skeptical of legal weed. So do voters in 9 states yet to legalize that allow citizen initiatives: Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming.
Some cannabis advocates think another recreational marijuana initiative could make the Florida ballot in 2026. Others disagree.
“The only viable ballot initiatives in 2026 would be medical cannabis initiatives,” said Matt Schweich, executive director of the Marijuana Policy Project, a Washington D.C.-based nonprofit that advocates for cannabis legalization.
Medical marijuana simply has more support among red-state voters, Schweich said.
A key target next session will be Democrat-led Hawaii, Armentano said. A legalization bill died there last year after lawmakers voiced concerns about the bill’s implementation and public health, safety and fiscal impact, according to Spectrum News.
Another is Virginia, where possessing and using marijuana recreationally is legal but selling it is not. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) last year vetoed a bill that would have allowed legal sales. The commonwealth will elect a new governor next year, when Youngkin faces term limits.
Florida remains a top target for legalization through a ballot initiative, despite the failure of a proposed constitutional amendment this year. The initiative fell short of the 60% threshold needed to pass by 4.1 percentage points.
Florida-based cannabis company Trulieve spent a whopping $144.5 million on the measure, 94% of the total raised, according to the election reference site Ballotpedia.
After such a narrow defeat, Trulieve and its allies may try again, said Michael Minardi, a Tampa-based cannabis lawyer who has worked on several Florida cannabis ballot measures.
“What do you do, when you spend so much money on it, and you come so close, and there’s so much to gain for the entire industry?” he asked. “I expect them to double down on it.”
Cannabis industry analysts estimate that Florida could become the nation’s leading legal recreational cannabis market. The money to be made from legalization easily outweighs the cost of a ballot measure campaign, Minardi said.
Trulieve did not respond to requests for comment.
Outside Florida, cannabis advocates say they’re struggling to raise the money they need to run and win ballot initiative campaigns in red states.
Funding for such initiatives has shifted in recent years as key early donors have passed away and national nonprofits that were once all-in on legal cannabis have moved on to other things, such as legalizing psychedelics or decriminalizing a range of drugs.
Recreational marijuana initiatives are now largely funded by the cannabis industry itself. Deep-pocketed, multi-state companies such as Trulieve have little incentive to campaign for legal weed in sparsely populated states.
“It very much bothers me that so much money is poured into these big-state recreational campaigns and we’re leaving behind the people of Idaho, the people of Nebraska,” Schweich told Pluribus News shortly before the election.
With prospects in the states dimmed for now, advocates are turning their attention to the nation’s capital.
Advocates don’t expect Trump or the incoming Republican-led Congress to push for nationwide legalization, despite Trump’s recent cannabis-friendly comments. But they are hoping for incremental wins in D.C. next year, including reclassifying marijuana from a Schedule I drug to a Schedule III drug.
Federal agencies recently began that process and are expected to continue it in 2025. Moving to Schedule III would allow companies to sell marijuana products that win FDA approval to patients with a prescription but would not legalize the recreational markets states have built.
Cannabis industry advocates also plan to keep pushing legislation that would help licensed cannabis businesses access banking services, said Aaron Smith, head of the National Cannabis Industry Association.
“Having a unified government, where the partisan gridlock issue becomes a little less of a problem — I think we have a really good shot at getting that through,” Smith said.
Smith said Congress could also move legislation affirming that states have the right to set their own cannabis laws. U.S. Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio) introduced such a bill last year.
With full legalization unlikely to gain traction, advocates have an opportunity to step back and build consensus around key policy questions, said Cat Packer, director of drug markets and legal regulation at the Drug Policy Alliance, a New York City-based group that advocates for ending the war on drugs.
“There really is no consensus on what federal legalization should look like,” Packer said. She pointed to disagreements over what agency should regulate marijuana and how to manage taxation, tribal rights, interstate commerce and international trade, among other issues.
Cannabis advocates will also be changing their arguments as the legalization fight moves into Republican territory.
“I think we’re going to have to be talking about personal freedom, individual liberties, states’ rights,” Packer said of conversations with members of Congress.
Armentano said the same of state-level lobbying.
“Advocates went into New York City and said legalization is all about social justice and social equity,” he said. “You’re not going to go into North Dakota and win with those arguments.”
The long-term trend, Armentano emphasized, is for more states and more voters to embrace legal weed. He pointed to a 2023 Gallup poll that found 70% of Americans favor legalization — the highest share ever.
“In a country that is divided on most major political issues, this is one of the few issues where you see a critical mass of support,” he said. “And as long as that exists, and continues to grow, advocates are going to try to expand legalization policies.”